Why The Blackhawks Should Buyout Brian Campbell

The Blackhawks have 11 restricted or unrestricted free agents to either resign or replace this offseason, and only $8.8 million in cap room.

One of the 11 is Jordan Hendry, who technically is the 8th dman right now even though he's out, so if they have to they can use John Scott as the 7th dman and not carry an 8th full-time next season.

That leaves them with have 10 guys to resign or replace, and only $8.8 mil. to do it, but they also need to leave about $1 mil. to cover call-ups for injuries and a small amount of room for trades. If they only signed guys to minimum deals, $500k, that's no problem, but there are quite a few guys who are already over $1 mil. that are free agents, and a couple will get something around $2 mil. (Brouwer, Crawford), and several who are restricted free agents could get offer sheets from other teams, which would pretty much guarantee we can't resign them.

Brouwer has 20+ goal talent, but is also one of the few Hawks who can play a physical game, something the entire team lacks since the salary cap purge last off-season. He must be resigned or replaced with another physical player who also has offensive ability, and those players not only do not grow on trees, but are expensive. It's easier to just find a way to pay Brouwer the $2 million or so he's earned.

The free agents... (all numbers from CapGeek, except for my rough predictions for next season's salaries)

Goalie:
Crawford - restricted (800k this year, probably at least 1.5 or so next year, plus if you only sign 1 yr deal he becomes unrestricted in 1 yr)
Turco - unrestricted (1.3 mil this yr, no chance he comes back. Not likely that they can carry a goalie making more than min.)

(They do have a hotshot goalie in Europe, Salak, who could potentially start next year if they lost Crawford, but he made 1.3 this year, is a restricted free agent, and probably too expensive to be Crawford's backup. Salak also should play at least part of a season in the minors to get used to North American hockey)

Defensemen:
Campoli - restricted (made 1.4, could get an offer sheet, likely to be around 2 mil per or a little under, we can't really afford to resign him)
Hendry - unrestricted (made 600k, but likely won't be ready at start of season after knee surgery)

Forward:
Brouwer - restricted (made 1.0 could get offer sheet near 2 mil, this will be very hard to fit in, it means carrying at least two guys at 500k, which means prospects don't make team)
Stahlberg - restricted (made 800k)
Frolik - restricted (made 1.2 not likely to get offer sheet i think because he slumped)
Dowell - restricted (made 500k, should be able to resign at small raise)
Kopecky - unrestricted (made 1.2, probably can't afford him near that price again. have to replace his role if he leaves)
Pisani - unrestricted (made 500k)
Johnson - unrestricted (made 500k)

Let's do some math...counting only small raises for most of these guys...

$7.8 mil available

Crawford 1.6 mil
bu goalie - 500k (2.1)
Campoli 1.8 mil (3.9)
Brouwer 1.8 mil (5.7)
Stahlberg 900k (6.6)
Frolik 1.2 (7.8)
Dowell 600k (8.4)
Kopecky 1.2 (9.6)
Pisani 500k (10.1)
Johnson 500k (10.6)

That's about $3 mil over what they can spend. So unless they trade another player off the roster that is making several million, they can't resign probably 3 of those guys above making around $1 mil. or more.

So no Frolik/or Stahlberg, no Campoli, and probably no Brouwer. They also have to spend at least 1.5 mil to replace those 3 with minimum salary players, that's why they can't get rid of just 2, they need the money from the 3rd one to afford replacements.

Frolik and Stahlberg have shown flashes of potential, and have tons of speed to go with their skill, but have not been consistent performers. I wouldn't mind if they could trade one of them for a more physical player who also has some offensive skill, but they would need to find a player who fits under the cap.

Another problem with resigning all of these players is that they have several prospects who are on the verge of being ready, but who make significantly more than the league minimum, which would once again make it almost impossible to fit them onto the roster and stay under the salary cap next season.

Among the prospects, Jeremy Morin ($917k), Kyle Beech ($1.17 mil), Brandon Pirri ($900k), Phillipe Paradis ($900k), and restricted free agent goalie prospect Alexander Salak had an NHL cap hit of $1.3 mil if he had been in the NHL this season. Morin almost certainly would have been up when Dave Bolland got hurt, but Morin also had a concussion at the same time. Resigning Brouwer, Campoli, Frolik, Stahlberg, and Crawford would make it near impossible for any of the above mentioned prospects to spend much time on the roster next season.

Or the Blackhawks could do something crazy and buyout Brian Campbell, who has $35 mil. left on his contract. Because he is over 26 years old, it would cost 2/3rds of his remaining contract to buy him out, about $23.8 mil. Campbell has 5 years left on his deal, but a buyout counts for double the length of years remaining. It would count as $2.38 mil for each of 10 years on the cap to get rid of him. The plus is it would save the Blackhawks $4.7 million per year for 5 years on the cap (and then when his deal would have expired it actually adds 2.38 mil for another 5 years).

I doubt they want to have a salary cap hit for 10 years for a player no longer on the team, but saving the $4.7 mil each of the next 5 years would make the team better now, while we have so many other star players in their prime, and that's what it's all about. Besides, in another 6 years as the cap keeps going up, that 2.38 mil hit for years 6-10 won't be as bad as it is now.

If they got rid of Campbell (who has played like he's he has a brain cramp most of the playoffs), they would go from $7.8 mil of cap room next year to $12.5, plenty of room to resign Brouwer, Crawford, Campoli (who replaces Campbell for far less), Frolik, and Stahlberg, and have about $2 mil left to look for another d-man if they want, or call up one of the kids, or replace lower salaried players on the roster with some of the higher salaried prospects (Morin, Beech, etc.)

I would rather lose Campbell than lose Brouwer, Campoli, and Frolik/or Stahlberg. Campoli was a huge pickup and they need to keep him, especially since he gives them about half of Campbell's offense but plays far better defense at 1/4th the cost.